Oceanologia No. 53 (1-TI) / 11

Contents

Preface

Papers

Papers


Quality assessment of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea from an ensemble of regional climate model simulations with respect to ocean dynamics
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 193-227
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.193

H. E. Markus Meier1,2,*, Anders Höglund1, Ralf Döscher1, Helén Andersson1, Ulrike Löptien1, Erik Kjellström1
1Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Research Department,
Norrköping 60176, Sweden;
2Department of Meteorology, Stockholm University,
Stockholm 10691, Sweden;
e-mail: markus.meier@smhi.se
*corresponding author

keywords: regional climate modelling, atmosphere-ocean coupling, climate change, ensemble modelling, Baltic Sea region

Received 6 October 2010, revised 27 January 2011, accepted 28 January 2011.

The work presented in this study was jointly funded by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (SEPA), the Swedish Research Council for Environment, Agricultural Sciences and Spatial Planning (FORMAS), and the European Commission within the projects ECOSUPPORT (Advanced modelling tool for scenarios of the Baltic Sea ECOsystem to SUPPORT decision making, ref. no. 08/381), AMBER (Assessment and Modelling Baltic Ecosystem Response, ref. no. 08/390) and INFLOW (Holocene saline water inflow changes into the Baltic Sea, ecosystem responses and future scenarios, ref. no. 2008-1885). All three projects are part of the BONUS+ program (http://www.bonusportal.org).

Abstract

Climate model results for the Baltic Sea region from an ensemble of eight simulations using the Rossby Centre Atmosphere model version 3 (RCA3) driven with lateral boundary data from global climate models (GCMs) are compared with results from a downscaled ERA40 simulation and gridded observations from 1980-2006. The results showed that data from RCA3 scenario simulations should not be used as forcing for Baltic Sea models in climate change impact studies because biases of the control climate significantly affect the simulated changes of future projections. For instance, biases of the sea ice cover in RCA3 in the present climate affect the sensitivity of the model's response to changing climate due to the ice-albedo feedback. From the large ensemble of available RCA3 scenario simulations two GCMs with good performance in downscaling experiments during the control period 1980-2006 were selected. In this study, only the quality of atmospheric surface fields over the Baltic Sea was chosen as a selection criterion. For the greenhouse gas emission scenario A1B two transient simulations for 1961-2100 driven by these two GCMs were performed using the regional, fully coupled atmosphere-ice-ocean model RCAO. It was shown that RCAO has the potential to improve the results in downscaling experiments driven by GCMs considerably, because sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations are calculated more realistically with RCAO than when RCA3 has been forced with surface boundary data from GCMs. For instance, the seasonal 2 m air temperature cycle is closer to observations in RCAO than in RCA3 downscaling simulations. However, the parameterizations of air-sea fluxes in RCAO need to be improved.

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A comparison of ASCAT wind measurements and the HIRLAM model over the Baltic Sea
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 229-244
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.229

Jekaterina Služenikina1,2,*, Aarne Männik2,3
1Tallinn University of Technology,
Ehitajate tee 5, Tallinn 19086, Estonia
2Estonian Meteorological and Hydrological Institute,
Toompuiestee 24, Tallinn 10149, Estonia;
e-mail: jekaterina.sluzenikina@emhi.ee
*corresponding author
3University of Tartu,
Ülikooli 18, Tartu 50090, Estonia

keywords: ASCAT, scatterometer winds, HIRLAM model, Baltic Sea, numerical weather prediction

Received 6 October 2010, revised 14 February 2011, accepted 15 February 2011.

This research is supported by European Social Fund's Doctoral Studies and Internationalization Programme DoRa and the Estonian Ministry of Education and Science research targeted financing theme SF0180038s08. The EARS ASCAT data used in this research was provided by the EUMETCast service of EUMETSAT OSI SAF project, and the software used in this work was developed at KNMI.

Abstract

This paper presents a comparison of the wind data measured by the ASCAT polar-orbiting satellite scatterometer and winds forecast by the numerical weather prediction model HIRLAM in the Baltic Sea region during the stormy season in 2009. Two different resolution models were used in the comparison. Mutual quality and uncertainty characteristics of the measurements and predictions are determined. The results of the study show that the ASCAT wind data are well correlated with the HIRLAM predicted winds, which raises the credibility of both data sources in operational and hindcasting applications over the Baltic Sea. A case of phase error in a HIRLAM forecast of cyclonic activity over the Baltic Sea is discussed.

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Temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia 1961-2008
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 245-257
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.245

Kalev Päädam*, Piia Post
Institute of Physics, University of Tartu,
Ülikooli 18, Tartu 50090, Estonia;
e-mail: kalevai@gmail.com
*corresponding author

keywords: precipitation extremes, temporal variability, Estonia

Received 6 October 2010, revised 1 February 2011, accepted 2 February 2011.

Supported by Estonian Science Foundation grants 7510, 7526 and the Estonian National Targeted Financing Project SF0180038s08.

Abstract

Daily precipitation data from 40 stations are used to investigate the temporal variability of precipitation extremes in Estonia. The period covered is 1961-2008, characterized by a uniformity of observational practice. Precipitation extremes are quantified by yearly and seasonal values of two different parameters: day-count indices based on 95th and 99th percentile thresholds. Trend significance was assessed with the Mann-Kendall test. Results show that the frequency of both indices has increased. No significant negative trends were found. An increase of 15.8 events over the 99th percentile per decade was observed for Estonia. The indices selected for this study may be called "soft" climate extremes, but the number of such events is large enough to allow for meaningful trend analysis in a roughly half-century long time series.

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Temporal variation of extreme precipitation events in Lithuania
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 259-277
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.259

Egidijus Rimkus*, Justas Kažys, Arūnas Bukantis, Aleksandras Krotovas
Department of Hydrology and Climatology, Vilnius University,
M. K. Čiurlionio 21/27, Vilnius 03101, Lithuania;
e-mail: egidijus.rimkus@gf.vu.lt
*corresponding author

keywords: heavy precipitation, atmospheric circulation, regional modelling, CCLM model

Received 15 September 2010, revised 17 February 2011, accepted 24 February 2011.

The study was supported by the Lithuanian State Science and Studies Foundation and by the BSR Interreg IVB Project "Climate Change: Impacts, Costs and Adaptation in the Baltic Sea Region (BaltCICA)".

Abstract

Heavy precipitation events in Lithuania for the period 1961-2008 were analysed. The spatial distribution and dynamics of precipitation extremes were investigated. Positive tendencies and in some cases statistically significant trends were determined for the whole of Lithuania.
   Atmospheric circulation processes were derived using Hess & Brezowski's classification of macrocirculation forms. More than one third of heavy precipitation events (37%) were observed when the atmospheric circulation was zonal. The location of the central part of a cyclone (WZ weather condition subtype) over Lithuania is the most common synoptic situation (27%) during heavy precipitation events.
   Climatic projections according to outputs of the CCLM model are also presented in this research. The analysis shows that the recurrence of heavy precipitation events in the 21st century will increase significantly (by up to 22%) in Lithuania.

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Changes in some elements of the water cycle in the easternmost part of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin between 1945 and 2010
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 279-292
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.279

Nina A. Speranskaya
State Hydrological Institute,
St. Petersburg, Russia;
e-mail: speran@mail.rcom.ru
*corresponding author

keywords: soil moisture, pan and visible evaporation, moistening regime changes

Received 6 October 2010, revised 31 January 2011, accepted 10 February 2011.

This research was partly supported by the Russian Foundation for Basic Research within the framework of grant 08-05-00897-a.

Abstract

Soil moisture and evaporation are the most important elements of the terrestrial water cycle. In situ data from 14 stations with soil moisture observations, 13 stations with pan evaporation and 200 stations with precipitation measurements are used to analyse temporal changes in these elements of the terrestrial water cycle over the Russian part of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin.

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Long term water level and surface temperature changes in the lagoons of the southern and eastern Baltic
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 293-308
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.293

Inga Dailidienė1,*, Henning Baudler2, Boris Chubarenko3, Svetlana Navrotskaya3
1Geopgysical Sciences Department, Coastal Research and Planning Institute,
Klaipėda University, H. Manto 84, Klaipėda 92294, Lithuania;
e-mail: inga.dailidiene@ku.lt
*corresponding author
2Institute for Biosciences (IFBI), Applied Oecology/Biological Station, Rostock University,
Albert-Einstein Str. 3, Rostock 18057, Germany,
Mühlenstr. 27, Ostseeheilbad Zingst 18374, Germany
3Atlantic Branch, P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology,
Russian Academy of Sciences, Prospekt Mira 1, Kaliningrad 236000, Russia

keywords: Baltic Sea lagoons, water level, sea surface temperature, variability, climate changes

Received 6 October 2010, revised 17 February 2011, accepted 17 February 2011.

Abstract

The paper studies variations in the water level and surface temperature of coastal lagoons along the southern and south-eastern shores of the Baltic Sea: the Curonian Lagoon, Vistula Lagoon, and Darss-Zingst Bodden Chain. Linear regressions for annual mean water level variations showed a positive trend in water level, but at different rates. The highest rate during the period between 1961-2008 was recorded for the Curonian and Vistula lagoons (~ 4 mm year-1), the lowest for the Darss-Zingst Bodden Chain (approximately ~ 1 mm year-1). The warming trend of the mean surface water temperature in the lagoons was 0.03°C year-1 in the period 1961-2008. Moreover, the variability in annual water temperature and sea level as well as their extreme values have increased most dramatically since the 1980s.

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The role of the spatial resolution of a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model for marine transport risk assessment
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 309-334
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.309

Oleg Andrejev1, Tarmo Soomere2,*, Alexander Sokolov3, Kai Myrberg3
1Finnish Environment Institute, Marine Research Centre,
P.O. Box 140, Helsinki 00251, Finland
2Institute of Cybernetics, Tallinn University of Technology,
Akadeemia tee 21, Tallinn 12618, Estonia;
e-mail: soomere@cs.ioc.ee
*corresponding author
3Baltic Nest Institute, Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University,
Stockholm 10691, Sweden

keywords: ocean modelling, environmental risks, risk modelling, Gulf of Finland, Baltic Sea, pollution propagation, maritime spatial planning

Received 6 October 2010, revised 31 January 2011, accepted 5 February 2011.

This study was supported by funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 217246 made with the joint Baltic Sea research and development programme BONUS for the BalticWay project, which attempts to reduce the risk of vulnerable sea areas being polluted by placing potentially dangerous activities in specific offshore regions. The research was partially supported by targeted financing from the Estonian Ministry of Education and Science (grants SF0140077s08 and SF0140007s11) and the Estonian Science Foundation (grant No. 7413).

Abstract

The paper addresses the sensitivity of a novel method for quantifying the environmental risks associated with the current-driven transport of adverse impacts released from offshore sources (e.g. ship traffic) with respect to the spatial resolution of the underlying hydrodynamic model. The risk is evaluated as the probability of particles released in different sea areas hitting the coast and in terms of the time after which the hit occurs (particle age) on the basis of a statistical analysis of large sets of 10-day long Lagrangian trajectories calculated for 1987-1991 for the Gulf of Finland, the Baltic Sea. The relevant 2D maps are calculated using the OAAS model with spatial resolutions of 2, 1 and 0.5 nautical miles (nm) and with identical initial, boundary and forcing conditions from the Rossby Centre 3D hydrodynamic model (RCO, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute). The spatially averaged values of the probability and particle age display hardly any dependence on the resolution. They both reach almost identical stationary levels (0.67-0.69 and ca 5.3 days respectively) after a few years of simulations. Also, the spatial distributions of the relevant fields are qualitatively similar for all resolutions. In contrast, the optimum locations for fairways depend substantially on the resolution, whereas the results for the 2 nm model differ considerably from those obtained using finer-resolution models. It is concluded that eddy-permitting models with a grid step exceeding half the local baroclinic Rossby radius are suitable for a quick check of whether or not any potential gain from this method is feasible, whereas higher-resolution simulations with eddy-resolving models are necessary for detailed planning. The asymptotic values of the average probability and particle age are suggested as an indicator of the potential gain from the method in question and also as a new measure of the vulnerability of the nearshore of water bodies to offshore traffic accidents.

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334 O. Andrejev, T. Soomere, A. Sokolov, K. Myrberg Soomere T., Myrberg K., Leppäranta M., Nekrasov A., 2008, The progress in knowledge of physical oceanography of the Gulf of Finland: a review for 1997 –2007, Oceanologia, 50 (3), 287–362.

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Spatial patterns of the wave climate in the Baltic Proper and the Gulf of Finland
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 335-371
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.335

Tarmo Soomere*, Andrus Räämet
Institute of Cybernetics, Tallinn University of Technology,
Akadeemia tee 21, Tallinn 12618, Estonia;
e-mail: soomere@cs.ioc.ee
*corresponding author

keywords: wind waves, wave modelling, wave observations, wave climate, Baltic Sea

Received 6 October 2010, revised 15 March 2011, accepted 30 March 2011.

This study was supported by the Estonian Science Foundation (grant No. 7413), targeted financing by the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research (grants SF0140077s08 and SF0140007s11) and partially performed within the framework of the BalticWay project, which is supported by funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme (FP/2007-2013) under grant agreement No. 217246 made with the joint Baltic Sea research and development programme BONUS.

Abstract

We make an attempt to consolidate results from a number of recent studies into spatial patterns of temporal variations in Baltic Sea wave properties. The analysis is based on historically measured and visually observed wave data, which are compared with the results of numerical hindcasts using both simple fetch-based one-point models and contemporary spectral wave models forced with different wind data sets. The focus is on the eastern regions of the Baltic Sea and the Gulf of Finland for which long-term wave data sets are available. We demonstrate that a large part of the mismatches between long-term changes to wave properties at selected sites can be explained by the rich spatial patterns in changes to the Baltic Sea wave fields that are not resolved by the existing wave observation network. The spatial scales of such patterns in the open sea vary from > 500 km for short-term interannual variations down to about 100 km for long-term changes.

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Physical aspects of extreme storm surges and falls on the Polish coast
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 373-390
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.373

Bernard Wiśniewski1, Tomasz Wolski2,*
1Faculty of Navigation, Maritime University of Szczecin,
Wały Chrobrego 1-2, Szczecin 70-500, Poland
2Faculty of Geosciences, University of Szczecin,
al. Wojska Polskiego 107/109, Szczecin 70-483, Poland;
e-mail: natal@univ.szczecin.pl
*corresponding author

keywords: Polish coast, extreme sea levels, storm surges, storm falls

Received 6 October 2010, revised 2 March 2011, accepted 8 March 2011.

Abstract

Extreme sea levels – storm-generated surges and falls - on the Polish coast are usually the effects of three components: the volume of water in the southern Baltic (the initial level preceding a given extreme situation), the action of tangential wind stresses in the area (wind directions: whether shore- or seaward; wind velocities; and wind action duration), and the sea surface deformation produced by deep, mesoscale baric lows moving rapidly over the southern and central Baltic that generate the so-called baric wave. Among these factors, the baric wave is particularly important for, i.e. the water cushion underneath the baric depression, moving along the actual atmospheric pressure system over the sea surface.

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Variability of the marine boundary layer parameters over Baltic Sea sub-basins and their impact on nitrogen deposition
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 391-413
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.391

Marke Hongisto
Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI),
Erik Palménin Aukio, Helsinki 00101, Finland;
e-mail: Marke.Hongisto@fmi.fi

keywords: Baltic Sea, airborne load, reactive nitrogen, marine boundary layer parameters

Received 21 September 2010, revised 16 February 2011, accepted 17 February 2011.

Abstract

The variability of the marine boundary layer parameters over the Baltic Sea and its sub-basins and their impact on the 6 h, monthly or seasonal deposition of oxidized nitrogen compounds was studied using results of the Hilatar chemistry-transport model, the 6th hour forecasts of the HIRLAM weather prediction model and meteorological measurement data. The monthly load of oxidized nitrogen was highest in the winters of 1993-1995 and 2000, and lowest in 1996-1997 and 2005; no trend was detected. Short-time correlations were low, but a significant correlation of the monthly deposition with the NAO index and ice-season was found over northern sub-basins.

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PO4 release at the sediment surface under anoxic conditions: a contribution to the eutrophication of the Baltic Sea?
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 415-429
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.415

Bernd Schneider
Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research,
Seestrasse 15, Warnemünde 18119, Germany;
e-mail: bernd.schneider@io-warnemuende.de

keywords: phosphate, anoxia, eutrophication, total, CO2

Received 22 October 2010, revised 3 January 2011, accepted 15 January 2011.

This study was supported by the Monitoring Programme of the Leibniz Institute for Baltic Sea Research, Warnemünde, Germany, and it is a contribution to the BONUS Baltic-C Project funded by the German Ministry for Science and Technology under FKZ 03F0486A.

Abstract

The vertical profiles of phosphate, total CO2 and oxygen/hydrogen sulphide were determined in the deep water of the Gotland Sea during March 2003 to July 2006 with a temporal resolution of 2-3 months. This time span included the shift from anoxic to oxic conditions resulting from a water renewal event, as well as the transition back to anoxic waters during the subsequent two-year stagnation period. The data from depths below 150 m were used to identify and quantify phosphate release and removal processes. The relationship between the total CO2 generated by mineralization (CT, min) and the PO4 concentrations indicated that the initial decrease in the phosphate concentrations after the inflow of oxygen-rich water was mainly a dilution effect. Only about one third of the PO4 removal was a consequence of the precipitation of insoluble iron-3-hydroxo-phosphates (Fe-P), which occurred slowly at the sediment surface under oxic conditions. From the CT, min/PO4 ratios it was also concluded that the formation of Fe-P was reversed during the later phase of the stagnation, when the redoxcline approached a depth of 150 m. A phosphate mass balance was performed for four deep water sub-layers in order to quantify the dissolution of Fe-P during the stagnation period and thus to estimate the amount of Fe-P deposited during the last inflow of oxygen-rich water. A value of about 50 mmol-P m-2 was found, which refers to the specific biogeochemical conditions during the change from anoxic to oxic conditions that preceded the stagnation period.

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Simulation of nutrient transport from different depths during an upwelling event in the Gulf of Finland
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 431-448
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.431

Germo Väli1, Victor Zhurbas1,2, Jaan Laanemets1, Jüri Elken1
1Marine Systems Institute, Tallinn University of Technology,
Akadeemia tee 21, Tallinn 12618, Estonia
2P.P. Shirshov Institute of Oceanology, Russian Academy of Sciences,
36 Nakhimovsky Prospect, Moscow 117851, Russia;
e-mail: germo.vali@phys.sea.ee, zhurbas@ocean.ru, jaan@phys.sea.ee, elken@phys.sea.ee

keywords: Princeton Ocean Model, upwelling, Baltic Sea, nutrient transport

Received 6 October 2010, revised 22 February 2011, accepted 24 February 2011.

This work was sponsored by the Estonian Science Foundation (grant No. 7467 & grant No. 7328) and the Russian Foundation for Basic Research (grant No. 09-05-00479).

Abstract

Numerical simulation experiments with a high-resolution circulation model were carried out to study nutrient transport from different depths to the surface 10-m layer during an upwelling event along the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland in July 1999. The initial nutrient distribution is based on field measurements performed in the north-western part of the Gulf. Wind forcing covering the period of the upwelling along the northern coast was turned through 180° to simulate an upwelling along the southern coast. The simulation results showed that the main phosphorus transport to the upper 10-m layer occurred from depths shallower than 30 m for the upwelling events along both the northern and the southern coasts. Nitrogen transport to the upper 10-m layer was the largest from depths of 40-55 m for the upwelling along the northern and 40-65 m for the upwelling along the southern coast. Simulated cumulative volume transports to the upper 10-m layer from different depths showed that the contribution from deeper layers was larger in the case of the upwelling along the southern coast. The reduction of wind stress had a bigger influence on water transport from the deeper layers.

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Variability in the distribution of phytoplankton as affected by changes to the main physical parameters in the Baltic Sea
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 449-470
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.449

Lidia Dzierzbicka-Głowacka*, Jaromir Jakacki, Maciej Janecki, Artur Nowicki
Institute of Oceanology, Polish Academy of Sciences,
Powstańców Warszawy 55, Sopot 81-712, Poland;
e-mail: dzierzb@iopan.gda.pl
*corresponding author

keywords: 3D ecosystem model, Baltic Sea, phytoplankton, nutrient, temperature

Received 15 September 2010, revised 17 February 2011, accepted 2 March 2011.

The study was financially supported by the Polish State Committee of Scientific Research (grants: No. N N305 111636, N N306 353239) and ECOOP IP WP 10.1.3 Project. Partial support for this study was also provided by the Satellite Monitoring of the Baltic Sea Environment - SatBałtyk project founded by the European Union through European Regional Development Fund contract No. POIG 01.01.02-22-011/09.

Abstract

An integrated ecological system model was used to determine the influence on Baltic phytoplankton of the long-term variability in the sea's main physical parameters. A three-dimensional coupled sea-ice model was developed. A simple ecosystem was added to the sea-ice model and used to estimate phytoplankton variability during long-term changes in the main atmospheric forces. Scenarios similar to those of climate were performed by altering the main physical parameters such as temperature, wind speed, solar and thermal radiation (in different configurations). The influence of the variability in these parameters on phytoplankton is discussed.

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Holocene evolution of the Pomeranian Bay environment, southern Baltic Sea
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 471-487
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.471

Robert Kostecki*, Beata Janczak-Kostecka
Department of Quaternary Geology and Palaeogeography,
Adam Mickiewicz University,
Dzięgielowa 27, Poznań 61-680, Poland;
e-mail: kostecki@amu.edu.pl
*corresponding author

keywords: geochemistry, diatom assemblages, Littorina transgression, southern Baltic Sea, Pomeranian Bay

Received 6 October 2010, revised 28 February 2011, accepted 30 March 2011.

The Polish Ministry of Science and Higher Education financed this study within the framework of project No. N N305 084235.

Abstract

This article focuses on the diatom assemblages and geochemical composition of sediment cores retrieved from the Pomeranian Bay. We also discuss similarities and differences in the diatom assemblages and the palaeogeographic development of nearby regions. Our main objective was to determine the characteristics and rate of the Littorina transgression in the Pomeranian Bay area. Sediments were divided into units based on differences in the distribution of diatom ecological groups and in geochemical ratios, such as Mg/Ca, Na/K and Fe/Mn. This study identified lacustrine sediments deposited during the time of the Ancylus Lake. This lacustrine-period sedimentation took place in a shallow lake under aerobic conditions. The record of the onset of marine environment dates to 8900-8300 cal BP and corresponds to the Littorina transgression. After about 8300 cal BP, sedimentation took place in a deeper marine environment with higher biogenic production and anaerobic conditions. The abrupt appearance of marine diatom species and increased geochemical salinity indicators reflect the large impact of the Littorina transgression on the Pomeranian Bay environment.

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Analysis of 50-year wind data of the southern Baltic Sea for modelling coastal morphological evolution - a case study from the Darss-Zingst Peninsula
Oceanologia 2011, 53(1-TI), 489-518
http://dx.doi.org/10.5697/oc.53-1-TI.489

Wenyan Zhang1,*, Jan Harff2, Ralf Schneider1
1Institute of Physics, Ernst-Moritz-Arndt University of Greifswald,
Felix-Hausdorff-Str. 6, Greifswald 17489, Germany;
e-mail: wzhang@ipp.mpg.de
*corresponding author
2Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences, Szczecin University,
Adama Mickiewicza 18, Szczecin 70-383, Poland

keywords: representative wind series, statistical analysis, morphodynamic model, southern Baltic Sea

Received 6 October 2010, revised 1 March 2011, accepted 2 March 2011.

Abstract

High-resolution wind series in the southern Baltic Sea for the period of 1958-2007 are analysed to generate representative climate input conditions for a multi-scale morphodynamic model to simulate decadal-to-centennial coastline change. Four seasonal wind classes, each characterized by a predominant distribution of wind direction and speed, are derived from statistical analysis. Further calibration of this statistical description is done by sensitivity studies of the model to generate similar coastline changes of the Darss-Zingst peninsula as the measured data for the last century. The coastline change of this area is then projected for the next 300 years based on four different climate scenarios, through which impacts of accelerated sea level rise and storm frequency on the long-term coastline change are quantified.

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