POLNOR

WP4 - Future Arctic Ocean Change and Society

Norwegian Institute for Water Research (NIVA)

Richard Bellerby
Norwegian Institute for Water Research
Thormøhlensgate 53 D
NO-5006 Bergen
Email: richard.bellerby@niva.no

Four main tasks consists of WP4:

To simulate future decadal and centennial changes of hydrography and biogeochemistry in the study region. Identify geochemical and physical thresholds.
To identify regional hotspots where current ecosystems and key organisms are at risk.
To develop new fields of benthic biodiversity for future scenarios of ocean physical and chemical changes informed from organism and ecosystem optimal environmental windows.
To develop values for the ocean and ecosystem services and evaluate socioeconomic costs.

This WP will develop scenarios of ocean physico-chemical and biological change and socioeconomic modeling relevant for informing ocean management frameworks. It will assimilate the new information from the project observations, integrated datasets contemporary modeling and organism sensitivity to climate stressors. Data gathered by WP 1, 2, and 3 will be incorporated in this WP.

photo: P. Kukliński